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    國際
     

    國際制造業格局正在發生深刻調整

    陳文玲

    人民出版社  www.chayexinxiwang.com  2019-08-12        來源: 北京日報

    全球產業鏈、供應鏈、服務鏈、價值鏈正在重新布局——

    國際制造業格局正在發生深刻調整

     

      制造業發展和格局演化直接影響世界經濟。全球制造業生態系統和產業布局發生了重大變化,第五輪產業轉移和要素重組加快,第四輪經濟全球化與第四次工業革命并駕齊驅,全球產業鏈、供應鏈、服務鏈、價值鏈正在深度調整。

      第五輪產業轉移與要素重組加快進行

      從全球范圍的制造業布局來看,此前大體經歷了四輪大規模轉移。第一輪在19世紀初,制造業中心主要在英國,其制造業產值曾經占世界制造業產值30%左右;第二輪制造業中心在美國,美國制造業產值從1895年開始取代英國,曾經占世界制造業產值50%以上;第三輪制造業中心在日本、德國,20世紀60年代之后,日本制造業產值曾經占世界制造業產值16%;第四輪制造業中心在中國等新興經濟體,20世紀80年代初,歐美日等發達國家和亞洲“四小龍”等國家和地區,將勞動力密集型和低技術、高消耗產業轉移到中國等發展中國家。

      現在,第五輪產業轉移已經開始,正在從中國向東南亞、南亞、非洲、拉美一些國家和地區轉移,特別是勞動力密集型產業,如紡織、服裝、鞋帽、箱包等,很多轉移到印度、越南、泰國、馬來西亞、印度尼西亞等國家。

      產業大規模轉移主要有三個原因:一是科技革命引發的產業變革;二是資源環境的承載能力;三是成本驅動。每一輪產業轉移和要素重組都有它內在的機理。第五輪產業轉移主要基于后兩個原因,即資源環境難以支撐經濟超高速增長和土地、勞動力等綜合成本的抬升。

      全球產業鏈、供應鏈、價值鏈將重新布局

      一方面,全球產業布局會形成鏈狀鏈接,虛擬鏈接的產業鏈、供應鏈、服務鏈和價值鏈,成為更具有黏性、更具有依賴性的經濟聯系。這種產業聯系和經濟聯系的調整不是靠政府命令、政府規劃,而是由市場機制的決定性作用形成的內在聯系,產業的高端會越來越集中在創新能力強的地方,產業的中低端則會越來越集中在那些資源密集的地方,產品最終配置或集成的環節一定會靠近市場。

      另一方面,也不排除人為因素打斷產業鏈的風險,諸如在美國發起的全球性貿易戰特別是中美貿易摩擦中,采取單邊主義、封閉主義、保護主義和霸凌主義的態度,采取切斷產業鏈聯系的做法,這必然傷及產業鏈上龐大的虛擬企業群體,也包括美國在產業鏈上的企業,在一定條件下會倒逼產業鏈進行調整和再調整。

      還有一方面,產業鏈特別是處于中低端的產業鏈,正在向具有勞動力紅利、人力資本紅利和市場紅利的國家轉移,形成新的產業鏈布局。2018年中國13.9億人口,勞動力平均年齡為38歲;印度13.2億人口,勞動力平均年齡為28歲;非洲12億人口,勞動力平均年齡為27歲;印度尼西亞2.58億人口,勞動力平均年齡不到30歲。中國之外的這些國家和地區勞動力月工資平均在100—150美元,比中國的工資水平低很多。現在中國以體力勞動為主的人口紅利釋放空間被大大壓縮,全球產業鏈特別是勞動力密集型產業正在自動遷移或再次重構。

      智能制造成為制造業發展的重要趨勢

      世界第四次工業革命撲面而來,高速移動互聯網+人工智能(AI),下一代信息技術、人工智能技術的普遍應用,從替代人的體力勞動到部分替代人的腦力勞動,使制造業形態發生大變革,出現了智能工廠、智能車間、智能生態系統、智能工作流程等。特別是5G技術的應用,加速形成萬物互聯、萬物感知、萬物可視和萬物智能,產業互聯網普遍應用,新一代人工智能加速進化,將重塑產業形態和產業結構。

      采取國家戰略或產業政策支持智能制造發展,成為國際通行的做法。德國政府率先在2011年推進工業4.0,2018年推出《德國工業戰略2030》,加強國家干預,加快培育龍頭企業,全面推進智能制造。美國先是在奧巴馬時期緊跟德國,推出工業互聯網和先進制造業振興計劃,特朗普政府更將其提升為國家加快發展AI戰略,2019年2月11日,特朗普簽署了《維持美國人工智能行政領導力的行政令》,啟動“美國人工智能倡議”,次日美國國防部網站推出《2018國防部人工智能戰略摘要:利用人工智能促進國家安全與繁榮》。

      中國先后推出工業化與信息化兩化融合戰略、中國制造2025、加快實施新一代人工智能戰略規劃,推動科技成果轉化和制造業轉型同步進行,支撐智能制造高質量發展。智能制造將是下一個突破口。

      日本、韓國、法國、英國、瑞士、意大利等國智能制造各有所長。智能制造將成為現代制造業的核心競爭力。

      高端制造在向知識高地、創新高地轉移

      產業鏈高端、頂端和新材料、新技術、核心關鍵零部件等,在向知識高地和創新高地轉移。以新加坡為例,新加坡是個城市型國家,在2016年世界銀行關于全球營商水平評價中,新加坡排在第一位,營商環境全球最優,是全球知識高地、創新高地和知識保護高地,有利于大金融家、大企業家、大科學家投資和居住,集聚了現代金融中最高端的企業,全球1/10的芯片企業集聚在新加坡,全球40%的高端硬盤產品也產自新加坡。

      再以中國深圳為例,從改革開放前的一個小漁村發展成為創新型城市,GDP已經超過香港,將成為在世界率先開展5G試點的城市,成為國家、省級試驗室等創新載體最多的城市,成為超前布局物聯網、智能網聯汽車的城市,成為最先建設全面感知體系和基礎設施智能化的城市,形成高端制造的創新高地,聚集了一大批無人機、電動汽車、基因工程等制造行業和芯片等核心零部件的高端制造商。

      世界知識產權組織發布《2018年全球創新指數》,通過統計80個指標,對世界126個主要經濟體的創新能力進行評價,排名前20位的為瑞士、荷蘭、瑞典、英國、新加坡、德國、愛爾蘭、韓國、日本、中國香港、盧森堡、法國、中國、加拿大、挪威和澳大利亞。中國排在第17位,這與深圳、北京、上海、廣州、重慶、西安等創新型城市崛起,聚集了一大批高端制造與創新載體密切相關。

      (作者為中國國際經濟交流中心總經濟師)

      責任編輯:王熙元

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