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    軍事
     

    把握戰爭設計的科學途徑

    人民出版社  www.chayexinxiwang.com  2019-08-08        來源: 解放軍報 作者:閆曉峰

      如果傳統戰爭研究回答的是“戰爭是什么樣”,那么戰爭設計回答的就是“戰爭可以是什么樣”,也就是基于對戰爭現有的認識、結合可能具備的條件,對未來戰爭可能性的探求過程。科學進行戰爭設計主要有以下三條途徑:

      以研究現實對手為設計起點。此類戰爭設計的流程是:戰前判斷——戰略性作戰設計——軍事需求生成。戰爭設計以著眼當前或可預見的敵人為邏輯起點。和誰打、為什么打、最終需要達成什么目標都已經確定,戰爭設計的起點從分析敵我情況開始,然后對戰爭實施過程展開預先戰略性設計,最后根據作戰需要生成軍隊建設需求。以研究現實對手為起點的戰爭設計在時間軸上距離當前最近,時間跨度5年左右,如此短的時間也意味著戰爭樣式沒有發生重大變化。雖然每次以現實對手為起點的戰爭設計都不盡相同,但本質上仍是對已有戰爭樣式的靈活組合與重復使用,沒有對戰爭樣式、作戰概念、戰爭制勝機理等根本性戰爭理論進行創新。此類戰爭設計主要著眼滿足國家現實安全需求,進行指向明確、可立即執行的戰略性作戰設計,為應對可能發生的戰爭沖突提供全局性戰爭指導,并提出針對性較強的軍隊建設需求,具有應急性、現實性等特點。

      以運用創新技術為設計起點。此類戰爭設計的流程是:軍事技術創新——武器裝備發展——戰爭樣式創新——軍事需求生成。戰爭設計以技術革新為邏輯起點。首先從技術出發,促進科學技術軍事化應用,推動武器裝備發展,進而產生新的戰爭樣式并生成軍事需求,總體邏輯是以技術推動戰爭樣式發展,即“有什么樣的武器裝備就打什么樣的戰爭”。以創新應用軍事技術為起點的戰爭設計時間跨度比較靈活,因技術、武器裝備、戰法創新速度不同而不同,但通常需要經過大量試驗和實戰檢驗、不斷摸索完善才能成熟,不可能一蹴而就。其最突出的特點是產生了新的戰爭樣式,主要包括兩個方面:一是基于已有技術和武器裝備設計產生新的戰爭樣式,二是基于新技術和武器裝備設計產生新的戰爭樣式。二戰時基于坦克的閃擊戰屬于前者,基于原子彈的核戰爭則屬于后者,都是典型的技術推動型戰爭設計。

      以研究安全需求為設計起點。此類戰爭設計的流程是:安全需求判斷——作戰概念形成——戰爭構想設計——軍事需求生成。戰爭設計以未來安全需求的不確定性為邏輯起點。根據國際安全態勢、戰爭形態演進、國家戰略目標等,研究提出國家戰略安全需求,明確何時、何地進行戰爭,達到何種戰爭目的,然后研究提出滿足要求的作戰概念,分析其內涵、功能,進而提出更加具體的戰爭構想,最后選擇、尋找、改進、發明需要的技術,明確軍事組織編制調整改進方向,以及軍事人員能力素質需求,形成軍事力量需求。以研究未來安全需求為起點的戰爭設計通常時間跨度較長,主要著眼未來20年或更長時間,同時也是國防和軍隊長遠建設發展的起始,既是邏輯的起點也是時間的起點,牽引著軍事技術和武器裝備發展、軍隊組織編制調整改革和軍事人力資源建設。

    責任編輯:米云港

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