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    中國發展帶來的幾點啟示

    林毅夫

    人民出版社  www.chayexinxiwang.com  2019-08-13        來源: 人民日報

      原標題:中國發展帶來的幾點啟示(大家手筆)

      改革開放以來,中國經濟發展取得巨大成就,從一個貧窮的國家變成世界第二大經濟體。中國的發展拓展了發展中國家走向現代化的途徑,給世界上那些既希望加快發展又希望保持自身獨立性的國家和民族提供了全新選擇。總的來說,中國經濟發展給貧窮國家實現自身發展帶來四個方面的啟示。

      中國曾是世界上最貧窮的國家之一。1978年我國人均GDP只有156美元,80%多的中國人生活在農村。1981年,84%的中國人生活水平在一天1.25美元的國際貧困線之下。但是,經過改革開放以來的快速發展,中國成功邁進中等偏上收入國家行列,2018年人均GDP接近1萬美元。短短40年時間,中國就創造了一個擺脫貧困、走向繁榮的經濟奇跡,證明貧窮不是命運,為世界上其他還深陷貧困的國家實現工業化、現代化,走向繁榮富裕帶來了信心。這是中國發展帶來的第一點啟示。

      對于廣大貧窮國家來講,如何擺脫貧困、實現自身發展是當務之急。貧窮國家大多以傳統農業生產為主且生產力水平很低,要擺脫貧困就必須實現農業農村的改變。首先,要積極引入現代農業生產技術、化肥、良種等,提高農業生產力水平和農民生活水平。其次,要大力加強農田水利建設,改善農業灌溉條件,防止或減少因天有不測風云而帶來的不利影響,確保農業生產旱澇保收。第三,要提高農民的生產積極性。這是提高農業生產力水平的關鍵。中國通過實施家庭聯產承包責任制,極大調動了農民的生產積極性,既改變了農村面貌,又拉開了改革開放的大幕。最后,要更好發揮政府作用。一方面,農業現代化離不開良種培育,而良種培育在很大程度上屬于公共產品,依靠市場力量很難實現有效供給,需要充分發揮政府作用;另一方面,單純依靠農戶難以解決大規模興修農田水利、改善農業灌溉條件等問題,要充分發揮政府作用才能做好。擺脫貧困、實現發展需要從推進農業現代化做起,這是中國發展帶來的第二點啟示。

      當然,要擺脫貧困、實現發展,單單靠發展農業是不夠的,一定要推進工業化。現代化是農業和農業人口所占比重都不斷下降的過程。貧窮國家要擺脫貧困、實現發展,就一定要推進工業化,把農民從農業中轉移出來,進入現代化工業體系,并不斷提升工業化發展水平、優化產業結構。1978年以來,中國之所以能夠發展起來,一條重要經驗就是在農村改革的基礎上推進工業化、城鎮化,大力發展現代服務業。這是中國發展帶來的第三點啟示。

      事實上,一些國家也都明白先推進農業現代化,進而推進工業化、城鎮化這一道理,但為什么鮮有國家成功?根本原因在于他們在實現自身現代化過程中選錯了參照系,將發達國家有什么、做什么作為實現自身現代化的參照目標。在第二次世界大戰后,他們按照當時西方主流的結構主義理論,在資本極端短缺的條件下,以進口替代戰略去發展和發達國家一樣先進的資本密集型大工業。由于違反比較優勢,企業在開放競爭的市場中缺乏自生能力,只能靠政府對市場直接干預和扭曲的保護才能勉強把這樣的產業建立起來。上世紀80年代以后,一些國家又按照當時西方主流的新自由主義理念,試圖以“休克療法”推行“私有化、市場化、穩定化”,建立起和發達國家一樣完善的市場經濟體制,忽視了政府在經濟轉型和發展過程中的作用,結果不僅原本已經建立起來的工業體系崩潰了,新的工業體系也沒有建立起來,出現了去工業化的現象。這就導致一些國家在向市場經濟轉型過程中經濟停滯、崩潰,危機不斷。中國為什么成功了呢?主要原因在于,中國能夠根據自己的要素稟賦條件以及要素稟賦條件所決定的比較優勢,發揮政府在市場經濟中的因勢利導作用,把自己能做好的產業做大做強,將比較優勢變成競爭優勢,從而推動中國經濟長期穩定快速發展。這是中國發展帶來的第四點啟示。

      (作者為北京大學新結構經濟學研究院院長、中國南南農業合作學院高級國際顧問委員會主席)

      《人民日報》(2019年08月13日 09版)

      責任編輯:王熙元

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