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    社會
     

    新的就業機會在哪里

    ——基于一線調查得出確切分析

    人民出版社  www.chayexinxiwang.com  2019-08-12        來源: 北京日報 作者:莫榮

      ●在高質量發展階段,產業結構升級,教育、醫療等現代服務業的發展給我們增加了大量的就業機會。

      ●我們可以抓住第四次工業革命信息化、互聯網+、線上線下、人工智能的機會,不斷提高勞動效率,大力發展技術密集、知識密集、資金密集的行業,這也是未來發展潛力比較大的一個方向。

      ●隨著中國經濟服務業占的比重越來越高,我們未來對職業精神、職業道德要求也會越來越高。

      產業轉型升級有利于高校畢業生就業

      我國的產業結構在轉型升級,為的是更高質量的發展。以深圳為例,前些年進行了大規模的產業轉型升級,現在看來是比較成功的。其中很多加工型企業,轉到了其它地方,給當地留下了新的發展空間,之后大力發展金融企業、高新企業、新材料企業等。轉型的過程當中可能會有痛苦,但是轉型以后,就會迎來一片新的曙光。

      總體來看,產業轉型升級有利于高校畢業生的就業。因為高校畢業生大部分適合在第三產業就業,進行生產服務、生活服務,從事金融業和投資,以及一些其他的商務服務,如旅游、教育等。高校畢業生在第三產業就業的潛力比較大,且第三產業也比較適合大學生用已學的知識開展創新。

      我們在上海做過一個調研,共發放一萬份問卷,把不同屆別的學生進行對比后發現,85.8%的畢業生在第三產業就業,在第一產業、第二產業就業的比例分別是0.1%和14.1%,這也符合一個國際趨勢:在發達國家,第三產業的就業率一般是75%到80%,有的甚至達到90%。

      產業轉型升級能夠催生新的高薪職業

      最近,人力資源和社會保障部公布了兩個新的職業,叫做工業機器人系統操作員和工業機器人系統運維員。這兩個職業現在很火,相關的培訓收費也很高,但是培訓結業以后很快能夠找到工作,收入也很高。這得益于企業自動化的發展,用很多機器手臂、人工智能替代人力,需要這些工程師來做系統設計。同時,還需要在現場進行維護的工程技術人員。這些人既要懂機械,還要懂計算機軟件,因此,對勞動者的素質提出了更高的要求。

      未來就業市場誰是最大贏家

      在高質量發展階段,產業結構升級,教育、醫療等現代服務業的發展給我們增加了大量的就業機會。大家最關心的,就是哪些行業對就業最有利。今年新出的數據顯示,軟件工程行業對就業率幫助最大;其次是工程管理行業,這個行業既要求懂工程,還要懂經濟學、管理學,這說明我們國家仍然在大規模地搞建設,土木工程相關行業的人才也很缺乏,而且是就業率很高;再次是電氣工程及自動化行業,既要懂電氣工程,還要懂自動化,所以就業率也很高;第四是信息管理與信息系統行業,現在各個部委、各個部門都在搞信息管理、信息化;最后是護理學,進入老齡化社會以后,需要大量護理老人的護工,放開“二胎”以后,需要大量的月嫂,護理學的社會需求量比較大。

      那么,我們看就業比較差的專業,首先是音樂表演,大家可能覺得搞音樂很高大上,但是也容易被新媒體代替;其次是法學,目前法律職業大學生的供給比較多,就業率在下降;最后是生物、心理學、化學等等。像這些專業,它的就業率相對低一些,因為它跟我們現在產業結構轉型升級的結合不夠緊密,或者是供給太多,導致就業率相對較低。

      相比較而言,高職、高專的就業率比較高。排名第一的就業行業是從事學前教育的專業,現在這塊兒需要大量的人,就業率非常好;排名第二的是汽車技術服務與營銷行業,不管是賣汽車的還是修汽車的,還沒畢業就被搶定一空。當然還有就業率比較低的專業,如語文、初等教育、法律事務,這些方面人才供給相對來說比較充足。

      適應新變化才能抓住新機會

      產業轉型升級帶來的另一個方面,就是工作崗位內涵發生了變化。過去員工都是跟一家單位簽訂合同并在這接受考核,這家單位給員工上保險,發放福利。但現在通過互聯網把工作細分了,一個完整的工作分成一百個工藝,本來一個人要學會這一百個工藝,可能需要一年、兩年甚至更多的時間,但是現在把它分給一百個人做,每個人就做一件事,極大地提高了勞動生產率。最后勞動者發現,雖然工作難度降低,工作時間還是八小時,但是收入仍然比較高。

      不僅工作內涵在改變,工作方式也在變化。我們可以抓住第四次工業革命信息化、互聯網+、線上線下、人工智能的機會,不斷提高勞動效率,大力發展技術密集、知識密集、資金密集的行業,這也是未來發展潛力比較大的一個方向。

      創業現在成為就業的一個新增長點,現在每天有1.83萬個企業注冊,高校畢業生、退伍軍人和農民工等占比不少。比如,貴州的正安縣曾經是貴州勞務輸出大縣,農民工返鄉以后,在當地把吉他產業做成了世界最大的吉他產業園。我調研了解到,農民工在廣東打工,學會了做吉他,后來廣東產業轉移,做不下去了,他們就回來在當地做起了吉他生意,最后這里成為全球最大的吉他出口基地。我在河南調研的時候說,全世界很多女同志用的美容毛刷子都是我國生產的。這次我在武漢看到了,試了試質量真的特別好,他們也是農民工打工返鄉創業的一個范例。大量的人創業,就產生了一些新的就業機會。就業機會在哪?在這一次工業革命中,要多跟工業革命尤其是信息化接觸,從中尋找商機。

      當前,我國經濟下行壓力仍然存在,穩定就業顯得更為重要和緊迫,不僅要解決每年新增就業人口的問題,還要處理好原有存量的結構性矛盾,壓力和挑戰巨大。為此,2019年以來,黨中央和國務院持續加大對大學畢業生、農民工、退役軍人等重點群體的就業幫扶,并從失業保險基金結余當中拿出1000億元來加大職業技能培訓,并對生產經營中不裁員、少裁員的企業給予支持,通過各種措施促進就業穩定。

      怎樣實現更高質量和充分的就業

      實現高質量就業,第一,要有充分的就業機會;第二,要有公平的就業環境;第三,要有良好的就業能力,接受過職業培訓,擁有良好的職業精神和技能都很重要;第四,要有合理的就業結構,未來第三產業會給大家創造更多的就業機會;第五,要有和諧的勞動關系,企業和員工之間、企業之間、員工之間都要和諧。

      更充分就業還要服從四個特征:一是人力資源得到充分有效的開發利用。我們要在人力資本領域創造出一些新的增長點;二是就業渠道暢通。想在北京就業,想在上海就業,想在哪兒就業都能做到暢通無阻;三是勞動者權益得到充分保障。我們需要休假,需要得到福利;四是就業意愿得到充分體現。幫助每個人達成自己的目標,實現自己的價值,為社會創造價值。

      未來對職業精神、職業道德要求會越來越高

      我們在蘇州做了800家企業的調查,這次調查中,我們問企業,你們對農民工最看中哪個素質?單位看重的第一個是職業道德,第二個是敬業精神,第三個是團隊合作,最后才是職業技能。

      王府井以前有一位深受大家敬重的營業員叫張秉貴,練就了令人稱奇的“一抓準”,顧客說買一斤糖果,抓一把上去真的一顆不少。大家一方面為了買糖果,另一方面為了欣賞他的這種職業水準、敬業精神,排隊的人絡繹不絕。現在我們需要重新回歸到職業精神和敬業精神,如果勞動者沒有這種職業精神,個人的發展是有限的,企業給予的認可也是有限的。

      2018年我們在上海做問卷,針對的更多是服務業和文創業,當問到企業普遍認為勞動者應該具有的最重要素質是什么時,結論仍然是職業精神。發展第三產業,尤其需要有職業精神、工匠精神,因為提供給大家的服務代表了企業本身。顧客在這里買一件衣服,買的不是這個衣服,而是這個衣服所代表的商場對顧客的服務。所以,隨著中國經濟服務業占的比重越來越高,我們未來對職業精神、職業道德要求也會越來越高。

      (作者為人力資源和社會保障部中國勞動和社會保障科學研究院副院長,本文由作者在中央電視臺中國經濟大講堂演講基礎上整理而成。)

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